{"id":2625,"date":"2026-10-11T09:40:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-11T12:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/?p=2625"},"modified":"2026-10-20T11:52:38","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T14:52:38","slug":"rig-and-refinery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/rig-and-refinery\/","title":{"rendered":"Rig and Refinery"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NRGI: 38% of Nigeria&#8217;s Oil Projects at Risk From Energy Transition<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"701\" src=\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/69c6d70e7e006dca.1280-1024x701.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2626\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/69c6d70e7e006dca.1280-1024x701.webp 1024w, https:\/\/cefd.eco\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/69c6d70e7e006dca.1280-300x205.webp 300w, https:\/\/cefd.eco\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/69c6d70e7e006dca.1280-768x525.webp 768w, https:\/\/cefd.eco\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/69c6d70e7e006dca.1280.webp 1216w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">By Olivia Hart<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nigeria could lose 38% of its oil projects as the global energy transition accelerates, according to the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), a warning that lands directly on a producing country still dependent on crude exports for the bulk of government revenue and foreign exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure frames a structural problem rather than a cyclical one. Demand-side pressure \u2014 electrification, efficiency gains and substitution in the world&#8217;s largest importing economies \u2014 threatens to render a share of Nigeria&#8217;s future production unsanctioned, undeveloped or uneconomic before the barrels are ever lifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a country whose onshore Niger Delta estates have already struggled with theft, sabotage and divestment by international oil companies, the NRGI assessment adds an investment-risk dimension that no amount of operational improvement alone can fix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does the 38% figure actually mean?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NRGI&#8217;s projection addresses Nigeria&#8217;s project portfolio \u2014 developments that could fall away if the world decarbonises faster than the country&#8217;s upstream sector adapts. The energy transition, in this reading, is not a distant policy debate but a present commercial constraint on final investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The exposure cuts across the value chain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Upstream: fields requiring long payback periods face the risk that demand erodes before capital is recovered.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiscal terms: the state&#8217;s take from licensing, royalties and taxes shrinks if projects are never sanctioned.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Downstream: refineries and export terminals built around crude flows inherit the same demand uncertainty.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report does not argue that Nigerian production stops tomorrow. It argues that a material share of the pipeline \u2014 more than a third, on its central warning \u2014 sits in the zone where transition scenarios and project economics collide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why Nigeria carries outsized transition risk<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Several conditions concentrate the risk in Nigeria specifically. The government depends heavily on hydrocarbon revenue to fund budgets, making any contraction in the project base a fiscal event, not merely a corporate one. International oil companies have already redirected capital toward gas and lower-carbon portfolios, and Nigeria has watched successive divestments reshape ownership of its onshore acreage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, the global investment community increasingly prices transition risk into hydrocarbon financing. That raises the cost of capital for exactly the kind of long-cycle projects Nigeria would need to sustain output \u2014 deepwater developments and major rehabilitations among them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result, NRGI&#8217;s analysis implies, is a country whose resource wealth may under-deliver not because the geology failed, but because the market moved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What should policymakers and operators watch?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report&#8217;s warning is ultimately a planning instrument. For Abuja, the 38% figure argues for treating petroleum revenue projections with conservative assumptions rather than optimistic ones \u2014 budgeting, borrowing and saving decisions all hinge on how realistic the production outlook is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For operators and investors across the Niger Delta, the onshore shelf and deepwater blocks, the question is which projects clear commercial hurdles under weaker long-term demand, and which never reach sanction at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The watch items are straightforward: the pace of FID announcements in Nigerian acreage, the terms offered in future licensing rounds, and whether Nigeria diversifies its revenue base fast enough to absorb a smaller upstream sector. NRGI&#8217;s 38% is a projection, not a verdict \u2014 but it sets the benchmark against which Nigeria&#8217;s next decade of project sanctioning will be measured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div style=\"--wp--block-button--width: 50;\" class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill has-custom-width wp-block-button__width wp-block-button__width-50\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/rigandrefinery.com\/articles\/nrgi-38-of-nigeria-s-oil-projects-at-risk-from-energy-transition-435dd9fa\" style=\"background-color:#3278aa\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Publication link<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>NRGI: 38% of Nigeria&#8217;s Oil Projects at Risk From Energy Transition By Olivia Hart Nigeria could lose 38% of its oil projects as the global energy transition accelerates, according to the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), a warning that lands directly on a producing country still dependent on crude exports for the bulk of government [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":2636,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[47,48],"class_list":["post-2625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sem-categoria","tag-press","tag-sustainble-finance-taxonomies"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - 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