{"id":2261,"date":"2026-08-11T13:32:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-11T16:32:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/tax-reform\/"},"modified":"2026-08-18T12:27:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T15:27:10","slug":"tax-reform","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/tax-reform\/","title":{"rendered":"tax reform"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Oil, Transition and the New Economy: Pathways to Overcoming Brazil\u2019s Economic and Fiscal Dependence on Oil<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The seminar, organised by the Institute for Socioeconomic Studies (Inesc) in partnership with CEFD and other organisations, brought together more than 70 participants in Bras\u00edlia to discuss economic, fiscal and productive alternatives for a just and low-carbon transition. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The \u2018Oil, Transition and the New Economy\u2019<\/strong> seminar, organised by Inesc on 5 and 6 August, concluded in Bras\u00edlia with a discussion of how states and municipalities can reduce their economic and fiscal dependence on fossil fuels and develop diversification strategies tailored to different regional contexts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the theme \u2018Beyond fiscal dependence on fossil fuels: tax reform and low-carbon economic diversification in Brazilian states\u2019<\/strong>, the event brought together discussions on the impacts of the new tax system, opportunities for green reindustrialisation, and the need to turn energy advantages and temporary revenues into lasting development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Com media\u00e7\u00e3o de Nicolas Lippolis<\/strong>, diretor-executivo do Centro de Estudos de Finan\u00e7as e Desenvolvimento (CEFD), o painel contou com a participa\u00e7\u00e3o de Lucas Ramalho<\/strong>, secret\u00e1rio-executivo adjunto do Conselho de Desenvolvimento Econ\u00f4mico Social Sustent\u00e1vel; Rodrigo Oct\u00e1vio Orair<\/strong>, diretor da Secretaria Extraordin\u00e1ria da Reforma Tribut\u00e1ria do Minist\u00e9rio da Fazenda; Laurice Souza<\/strong>, secret\u00e1ria de Gest\u00e3o Tribut\u00e1ria e Fiscal do munic\u00edpio de Maric\u00e1; Gutemberg Dias<\/strong>, professor do Departamento de Geografia da Universidade do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte; e Jo\u00e3o Marcelo Abbud<\/strong>, especialista em financiamento clim\u00e1tico do Instituto E+ Transi\u00e7\u00e3o Energ\u00e9tica.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current landscape of fossil-fuel dependence<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Against this backdrop of dependence, Nicolas Lippolis highlighted three intersecting developments. The first is the extent to which certain states and municipalities have become reliant on oil revenues \u2013 a vulnerability that has already become apparent in territories affected by declining production or fluctuations in international prices. The second concerns the opportunities emerging from the low-carbon economy, which are unevenly distributed across the country and therefore require region-specific strategies. The third is tax reform, which is reshaping the instruments historically used by subnational governments to attract investment and calls for a new approach to regional development policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the moderator\u2019s view, building a new economy requires going beyond preserving oil revenues through royalties and sovereign wealth funds. While these instruments play important roles in stabilisation and intergenerational saving, the central challenge is to turn available resources into new value chains, technological capabilities and skilled employment. This requires avoiding a situation in which regions rich in renewable energy remain merely exporters of electricity, while decision-making and value creation continue to be concentrated in other economic centres. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Based on this analysis, the panel sought to address how tax reform will affect the ability of states and municipalities to pursue development policies; which instruments could replace incentives associated with the ICMS; how the National Regional Development Fund can be used strategically; and how governance, public participation and investment conditionality mechanisms can be designed to prevent the emergence of new economic enclaves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Industrialisation and value creation as pathways for the transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Opening the presentations, Lucas Ramalho<\/strong>, Deputy Executive Secretary of the Council for Sustainable Economic and Social Development, argued that Brazil will not reach a new level of development without rebuilding its industrial capacity. Recalling successive economic cycles based on the exploitation of raw materials, he argued that the country risks moving through the oil, niobium and rare-earth cycles without breaking with its position as an exporter of minimally processed commodities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Lucas\u2019s view, the transition should not be conceived solely in terms of what will replace oil, but rather of the productive structure Brazil intends to build. The country needs to turn its natural advantages into industrial capabilities, increasing economic complexity, creating value domestically and preventing technology, investment and skilled employment from continuing to be generated abroad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, he introduced the idea of a \u2018biostate\u2019<\/strong>, a development model based on organising industrial value chains around biomass, biodiversity and the productive capacity of Brazil\u2019s rural sector. The proposal extends beyond biofuels to include renewable materials, chemicals, bioplastics, medicines, food and construction-related solutions. The aim is to use science and technology to transform the country\u2019s biological wealth into a platform for industrialisation and innovation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lucas also linked this perspective to the missions of the New Industry Brazil programme. In his assessment, an industrial policy oriented towards societal challenges can bring together value creation, food security, the strengthening of the Unified Health System (SUS), sovereignty and territorial development. To deliver tangible results, however, the strategy would need to incorporate family farmers, cooperatives, extractive communities, Indigenous peoples, riverine communities and recycling workers into value chains, avoiding a transition that reproduces existing concentrations of income and opportunity. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tax reform reshapes the instruments of regional development<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Next, Rodrigo Oct\u00e1vio Orair<\/strong>, Director of the Ministry of Finance\u2019s Special Secretariat for Tax Reform, outlined the rationale behind the new tax system and its implications for states and municipalities. According to Orair, incentives granted through the ICMS played an important role at earlier stages of regional policy, but over time evolved into a form of predatory tax competition that eroded revenue bases without securing investment, employment or durable productive linkages. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Explaining the problem, Rodrigo noted that origin-based taxation encouraged states to offer incentives to attract or retain companies, even when many of these businesses generated little local economic activity. The prospect of neighbouring states offering similar advantages created a permanent competitive race in which companies gained bargaining power, while governments lost revenue without significantly changing the regional distribution of development. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Rodrigo, the reform changes this logic by shifting taxation to the destination, so that revenue follows where a good or service is actually consumed. The new Tax on Goods and Services will be jointly administered by states and municipalities, while tax incentives linked to the ICMS will be phased out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In parallel, the National Regional Development Fund will provide an alternative instrument for financing state-level policies. Rodrigo explained that funding will increase progressively between 2029 and 2043, when it is expected to reach R$60 billion per year. Although it is a national fund, its implementation will be decentralised: each state will determine its own development policy within the parameters established by the Constitution. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposed framework allows the funds to be used for infrastructure, logistics, research, technological development, services and support for a range of economic activities. For Rodrigo, this flexibility could replace a policy based on tax expenditures with more transparent strategies focused on structurally transformative projects. The allocation mechanism is also expected to proportionally favour less-developed states, reversing the concentration seen under the current system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Addressing oil-dependent regions specifically, the director clarified that the reform does not change royalties. The most significant change concerns consumption taxation. Municipalities that succeed in converting oil wealth into income, employment and economic dynamism may increase their revenues under the new system; those that fail to diversify their productive base will remain more vulnerable. Local development therefore ceases to be merely a desirable objective and becomes directly relevant to the fiscal sustainability of territories. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Territorial planning and institutional coordination as transition challenges<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Next, Lawrice Souza<\/strong>, Secretary for Tax and Fiscal Management of Maric\u00e1 (Rio de Janeiro state), shared the municipality\u2019s experience of managing revenues derived from oil extraction. According to her, the creation of the Maric\u00e1 Sovereign Fund was based on the recognition that royalties constitute an exceptional and temporary source of revenue, incapable of sustaining long-term local development on their own. The municipality therefore began establishing mechanisms to preserve part of these revenues and finance investments capable of strengthening the local economy beyond the oil sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lawrice stressed that this process required changes in the public administration\u2019s planning culture, incorporating a long-term perspective into fiscal management. In her assessment, oil revenues need to be used as instruments to expand the productive capacity of territories, stimulate new economic activities and create the conditions for future generations to inherit an economy less vulnerable to fluctuations in international oil markets. In this context, she stressed that tax reform further reinforces the need to diversify municipal economic bases, as the ability to generate income, consumption and productive activity will play an increasingly important role in determining subnational revenues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smart energy territories<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Continuing the discussion, Gutemberg Dias<\/strong>, Professor in the Department of Geography at the State University of Rio Grande do Norte (UERN), brought the perspective of a state that combines strong dependence on the oil industry with one of the country\u2019s highest concentrations of wind and solar energy projects. According to him, the prospect of expanding exploration along the Equatorial Margin has revived expectations of economic growth and higher revenues in Rio Grande do Norte, but also calls for reflection on the risk of deepening a model based on dependence on extractive activities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the researcher, the main challenge lies not simply in managing the coexistence of fossil and renewable energy sources, but in the lack of integration between these different agendas. At present, he noted, oil, wind power, solar power and green hydrogen are planned independently, without a strategy capable of bringing these sectors together in support of territorial development. In his assessment, this fragmentation limits the state\u2019s ability to turn its energy potential into a coherent policy for industrialisation, innovation and the creation of skilled employment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As an alternative, Gutemberg presented the concept of \u2018smart energy territories\u2019<\/strong>, based on linking different energy sources with infrastructure, universities, companies, technology centres and public policies. In his view, the energy transition should not be understood simply as replacing one energy mix with another, but as a broader process of economic and territorial transformation capable of diversifying the productive base and increasing the retention of wealth within territories themselves. This requires greater integration between energy planning, industrial policy, workforce development, technological innovation and the strengthening of local suppliers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Addressing the expansion of renewable energy, the professor also warned against reproducing problems already observed in the oil industry. In his assessment, wind and solar projects likewise generate environmental, social and economic impacts that need to be incorporated into public planning. Without industrial policies linked to the expansion of these sources, states such as Rio Grande do Norte will continue to export energy without developing local value chains, perpetuating a form of productive specialisation with limited capacity to promote regional development. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenges of the transition to a low-carbon economy are rooted in history<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Closing the presentations, Jo\u00e3o Marcelo Abbud<\/strong>, a climate finance specialist at Instituto E+ Transi\u00e7\u00e3o Energ\u00e9tica, broadened the discussion by linking the transition to a low-carbon economy to longstanding challenges in Brazil\u2019s productive structure. According to him, reducing dependence on fossil fuels requires the creation of economic activities capable of replacing not only tax revenues, but also the foreign exchange earnings, employment and productive dynamism currently sustained by oil extraction and exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Jo\u00e3o\u2019s assessment, Brazil is particularly well placed to lead a process of low-carbon industrialisation. The high share of renewable sources in the electricity mix, combined with the country\u2019s potential for producing biofuels, biomass and low-carbon hydrogen, provides competitive advantages that could attract new industrial investment. However, he warned that these opportunities will only translate into development if accompanied by public policies capable of fostering more complex and technology-intensive value chains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysing the effects of tax reform, Jo\u00e3o stressed that the end of tax competition will fundamentally alter how states and municipalities compete for investment. Without the ability to rely extensively on tax concessions, territories will need to strengthen attributes such as infrastructure, institutional capacity, planning, workforce skills and the business environment. In this context, the National Regional Development Fund emerges as a strategic instrument for financing structurally transformative projects capable of sustainably increasing income, consumption and revenue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The specialist also drew attention to the distinction between decarbonising existing industry<\/strong> and building a new low-carbon industrial base<\/strong>. While the first approach seeks to reduce emissions from established activities, the second involves creating new value chains linked to the processing of critical minerals, fertiliser production, low-emission steel, low-carbon hydrogen and other sectors capable of adding value to Brazil\u2019s natural advantages. For this process to generate development, he argued, investment must be conditional on local value creation, the strengthening of domestic suppliers, the expansion of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the creation of skilled jobs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels means more than replacing energy sources<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Throughout the panel, it became clear that reducing fiscal dependence on fossil fuels requires far more than replacing energy sources or creating new financing mechanisms. The different presentations converged on the need to strengthen the planning capacity of states and municipalities, bringing together tax reform, industrial policy, finance, innovation, infrastructure and territorial development within a common strategy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was also broad recognition that an abundance of natural resources and renewable energy, while an important advantage, does not in itself guarantee economic development. Turning these assets into diversified value chains capable of generating knowledge, technology, skilled employment and a stable revenue base depends on coordinated state action and the development of long-term public policies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In closing the seminar, the fourth panel brought together one of the main points of consensus developed over the two days of discussions: the transition to a new economy will only succeed if it is accompanied by a structural transformation of Brazil\u2019s productive base. More than simply reducing dependence on oil, the task is to create the conditions for today\u2019s natural-resource wealth to finance a development model capable of combining social justice, environmental sustainability and greater economic autonomy for Brazil\u2019s territories. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Nicolas Lippolis<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Lawrice Souze<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Rodrigo Oct\u00e1vio Orair<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Lucas Ramalho<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Gutemberg Dias<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Jo\u00e3o Marcelo Abbud<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Photos: Bruno Spada\/Trip\u00e9 Imagens<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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