{"id":957,"date":"2025-11-13T22:00:40","date_gmt":"2025-11-14T01:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/publications\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T08:09:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T11:09:24","slug":"publications","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/publications\/","title":{"rendered":"Publications"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Publications<\/h1>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Rethinking Resilience: Energy Security, Fiscal Constraints, and the Financing of Low-Carbon Development in African Hydrocarbon Producers<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNicolas Lippolis\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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This article examines how recent geopolitical tensions and volatility in global energy markets expose structural vulnerabilities in hydrocarbon-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their importance in global oil and gas supply, these economies remain highly dependent on imported fossil fuels and are characterized by fragile energy infrastructure, limiting their ability to respond to external shocks. <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t
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The combination of foreign exchange constraints, rising debt burdens, and import dependence has led to recurrent fuel supply crises, undermining energy security across the region. In response, governments have prioritized investments in refining capacity and gas-to-power infrastructure, often framed within broader industrialization strategies. However, the article argues that such projects are frequently oversized and economically fragile, carrying significant fiscal risks\u2014particularly in a context of uncertain long-term demand for fossil fuels. <\/p>

The paper contends that efforts to achieve energy autonomy often rely on incomplete diagnostics. Rather than large-scale industrial projects, it proposes a two-pronged approach to resilience. In the short term, this involves diversifying suppliers, expanding strategic fuel reserves, and investing in logistics and storage infrastructure. Over the medium to long term, reducing structural vulnerability requires sustained investment in low-carbon power systems and the development of green industrial activities. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The Race for a Greener Future: Industrial Policy in China-Brazil Electric Vehicle and Battery Cooperation<\/span><\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRICARDO KOTZ\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFEBRUARY 2026\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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This paper argues that the key to achieving this goal is developing coherent industrial policy frameworks that can use foreign investment as a springboard for the gradual construction of domestic capabilities. This requires coordinating across innovation policies, domestic regulation, and development finance instruments. In the absence of such coordination, FDI risks reproducing economic asymmetries, confining Brazil to downstream assembly and upstream resource extraction under the guise of green development. The text examines how the country can reconcile the expansion of the fossil sector with its climate ambitions and social equity goals, outlining paths to prosperity in a post-fossil fuel world. <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t
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Brazil\u2019s electricity mix is already largely renewable, led by hydropower, wind, and bioenergy, yet fossil fuels still supply about half of total energy consumption, especially in transport. Oil and gas production\u2014dominated by Petrobras and concentrated in pre-salt fields\u2014has grown rapidly, making Brazil a net exporter. Although hydrocarbons account for only a small share of government revenues, they are vital for some subnational budgets, complicating the transition. <\/p>

Institutionally, Brazil\u2019s energy and climate governance remains fragmented: strong technical agencies operate with limited coordination, allowing policies to promote both fossil fuel expansion and green transition rhetoric. The government argues that oil revenues can finance decarbonization, but this link remains largely aspirational. <\/p>

The briefing identifies opportunities for leadership as Brazil prepares to host the G20 and COP30. Reducing fossil fuel subsidies, directing petroleum revenues to innovation and forest conservation, and adopting fiscal instruments such as a carbon tax could advance a just and credible transition. Ultimately, Brazil\u2019s challenge\u2014and opportunity\u2014is to transform its resource wealth into a foundation for green industrialization and equitable development, offering a model for other fossil fuel producers in the Global South. <\/p>

From the outset, it was clear that Petrobras operates in an environment marked by contrasts. The pre-salt fields are experiencing a phase of high productivity and low costs, securing Brazil a central position in the global expansion of oil supply. At the same time, climate pressures, new international regulations, and transformations in energy value chains require the company to look beyond the immediate horizon. The challenge is to balance the weight of the present with the urgency of the future but without losing competitiveness or jeopardizing national energy security. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Workshop Summary: \u201cPetrobras\u2019 Role in the Energy Transition\u201d<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNICOLAS LIPPOLIS\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDECEMBER 2025
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On December 8, 2025, the Center for Energy, Finance and Development (CEFD), the E+ Energy Transition Institute, and the Institute for Strategic Studies of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (Ineep) organized a workshop in Rio de Janeiro to discuss Petrobras\u2019 role in the energy transition. <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t
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The workshop brought together researchers, government representatives, Petrobras staff, and energy-sector experts to discuss how the company can position itself more strategically in the transition toward a low-carbon economy. The meeting took place amid a moment of structural tension: on one hand, Petrobras continues to deliver exceptional results from oil production; on the other, it must respond to ongoing changes in the global energy system. <\/p>

From the outset, it was clear that Petrobras operates in an environment marked by contrasts. The pre-salt fields are experiencing a phase of high productivity and low costs, securing Brazil a central position in the global expansion of oil supply. At the same time, climate pressures, new international regulations, and transformations in energy value chains require the company to look beyond the immediate horizon. The challenge is to balance the weight of the present with the urgency of the future but without losing competitiveness or jeopardizing national energy security. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Resilient, but not yet Transformative: Brazil\u2019s Oil and Gas Sector in a Decarbonising World
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNICOLAS LIPPOLIS\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOCTOBER 2025
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This case study analyzes Brazil\u2019s oil and gas sector amid global decarbonization efforts, exploring the resilience of its hydrocarbon economy and the conditions for a transformative transition. Brazil has become the world\u2019s ninth-largest oil producer, driven by Petrobras and pre-salt reserves, with crude now the country\u2019s top export. Yet dependence on hydrocarbons remains limited nationally\u2014about 5% of fiscal revenues\u2014but high in oil-producing states such as Rio de Janeiro. <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t
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Brazil\u2019s energy mix is already dominated by renewables, but fossil fuels continue to underpin transport and industry. The government has introduced several initiatives\u2014RenovaBio, Mover, and \u201cFuel of the Future\u201d\u2014to advance biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, biomethane, and carbon capture. However, long-haul transport remains difficult to decarbonize, and new exploration plans, notably in the Equatorial Margin, risk locking in future emissions and stranded assets. <\/p>

In a decarbonizing world, Brazil\u2019s medium-term oil output is likely to remain competitive thanks to low extraction costs and relatively low emissions intensity. Yet falling global demand could erode royalties and fiscal revenues. The report highlights opportunities to redirect oil wealth toward innovation and diversification: strengthening governance of oil revenues; integrating biomass and hydrocarbon infrastructures to scale low-carbon fuels; leveraging Petrobras\u2019 technological capacity and investment to build green value chains; and deepening cooperation with partners such as China and the EU. <\/p>

The study concludes that Brazil\u2019s oil sector is resilient but not yet transformative\u2014well positioned to weather the energy transition, but still lacking the policy coherence needed to turn fossil wealth into sustainable prosperity.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Prosperity Post Fossil Fuels Briefing: Brazil<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tNOVEMBRO DE 2024
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This briefing analyzes Brazil\u2019s unique position in the global energy transition as both a major oil producer and a renewable energy leader. It explores how the country can reconcile its expanding fossil fuel sector with its climate ambitions and social equity goals, outlining pathways toward prosperity in a post-fossil-fuel world. <\/div><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg><\/span>\n\t\t<\/span>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/summary>\n\t\t\t\t
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Brazil\u2019s electricity mix is already largely renewable, led by hydropower, wind, and bioenergy, yet fossil fuels still supply about half of total energy consumption, especially in transport. Oil and gas production\u2014dominated by Petrobras and concentrated in pre-salt fields\u2014has grown rapidly, making Brazil a net exporter. Although hydrocarbons account for only a small share of government revenues, they are vital for some subnational budgets, complicating the transition. <\/p>

Institutionally, Brazil\u2019s energy and climate governance remains fragmented: strong technical agencies operate with limited coordination, allowing policies to promote both fossil fuel expansion and green transition rhetoric. The government argues that oil revenues can finance decarbonization, but this link remains largely aspirational. <\/p>

The briefing identifies opportunities for leadership as Brazil prepares to host the G20 and COP30. Reducing fossil fuel subsidies, directing petroleum revenues to innovation and forest conservation, and adopting fiscal instruments such as a carbon tax could advance a just and credible transition. Ultimately, Brazil\u2019s challenge\u2014and opportunity\u2014is to transform its resource wealth into a foundation for green industrialization and equitable development, offering a model for other fossil fuel producers in the Global South. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/details>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rethinking Resilience: Energy Security, Fiscal Constraints, and the Financing of Low-Carbon Development in African Hydrocarbon Producers Nicolas Lippolis April 2026 This article examines how recent geopolitical tensions and volatility in global energy markets expose structural vulnerabilities in hydrocarbon-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their importance in global oil and gas supply, these economies remain highly […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-957","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"\nPublications - Centro de Energia, Finan\u00e7as e Desenvolvimento<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out the main events organized by the Center for Energy, Finance and Development, an institution focused on energy transition\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/publications\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Publications - Centro de Energia, Finan\u00e7as e Desenvolvimento\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out the main events organized by the Center for Energy, Finance and Development, an institution focused on energy transition\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/publications\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Centro de Energia, Finan\u00e7as e Desenvolvimento\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-24T11:09:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/publications\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cefd.eco\/en\/publications\/\",\"name\":\"Publications - 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