The workshop brought together researchers, government representatives, Petrobras staff, and energy-sector experts to discuss how the company can position itself more strategically in the transition toward a low-carbon economy. The meeting took place amid a moment of structural tension: on one hand, Petrobras continues to deliver exceptional results from oil production; on the other, it must respond to ongoing changes in the global energy system.
From the outset, it was clear that Petrobras operates in an environment marked by contrasts. The pre-salt fields are experiencing a phase of high productivity and low costs, securing Brazil a central position in the global expansion of oil supply. At the same time, climate pressures, new international regulations, and transformations in energy value chains require the company to look beyond the immediate horizon. The challenge is to balance the weight of the present with the urgency of the future but without losing competitiveness or jeopardizing national energy security.
Brazil’s electricity mix is already largely renewable, led by hydropower, wind, and bioenergy, yet fossil fuels still supply about half of total energy consumption, especially in transport. Oil and gas production—dominated by Petrobras and concentrated in pre-salt fields—has grown rapidly, making Brazil a net exporter. Although hydrocarbons account for only a small share of government revenues, they are vital for some subnational budgets, complicating the transition.
Institutionally, Brazil’s energy and climate governance remains fragmented: strong technical agencies operate with limited coordination, allowing policies to promote both fossil fuel expansion and green transition rhetoric. The government argues that oil revenues can finance decarbonization, but this link remains largely aspirational.
The briefing identifies opportunities for leadership as Brazil prepares to host the G20 and COP30. Reducing fossil fuel subsidies, directing petroleum revenues to innovation and forest conservation, and adopting fiscal instruments such as a carbon tax could advance a just and credible transition. Ultimately, Brazil’s challenge—and opportunity—is to transform its resource wealth into a foundation for green industrialization and equitable development, offering a model for other fossil fuel producers in the Global South.
Brazil’s energy mix is already dominated by renewables, but fossil fuels continue to underpin transport and industry. The government has introduced several initiatives—RenovaBio, Mover, and “Fuel of the Future”—to advance biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, biomethane, and carbon capture. However, long-haul transport remains difficult to decarbonize, and new exploration plans, notably in the Equatorial Margin, risk locking in future emissions and stranded assets.
In a decarbonizing world, Brazil’s medium-term oil output is likely to remain competitive thanks to low extraction costs and relatively low emissions intensity. Yet falling global demand could erode royalties and fiscal revenues. The report highlights opportunities to redirect oil wealth toward innovation and diversification: strengthening governance of oil revenues; integrating biomass and hydrocarbon infrastructures to scale low-carbon fuels; leveraging Petrobras’ technological capacity and investment to build green value chains; and deepening cooperation with partners such as China and the EU.
The study concludes that Brazil’s oil sector is resilient but not yet transformative—well positioned to weather the energy transition, but still lacking the policy coherence needed to turn fossil wealth into sustainable prosperity.