Nicolas Lippolis
Executive Summary
This article examines how recent geopolitical tensions and volatility in global energy markets expose structural vulnerabilities in hydrocarbon-producing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Despite their importance in global oil and gas supply, these economies remain highly dependent on imported fossil fuels and are characterized by fragile energy infrastructure, limiting their ability to respond to external shocks.
The combination of foreign exchange constraints, rising debt burdens, and import dependence has led to recurrent fuel supply crises, undermining energy security across the region. In response, governments have prioritized investments in refining capacity and gas-to-power infrastructure, often framed within broader industrialization strategies. However, the article argues that such projects are frequently oversized and economically fragile, carrying significant fiscal risks—particularly in a context of uncertain long-term demand for fossil fuels.
The paper contends that efforts to achieve energy autonomy often rely on incomplete diagnostics. Rather than large-scale industrial projects, it proposes a two-pronged approach to resilience. In the short term, this involves diversifying suppliers, expanding strategic fuel reserves, and investing in logistics and storage infrastructure. Over the medium to long term, reducing structural vulnerability requires sustained investment in low-carbon power systems and the development of green industrial activities.
On the financing side, the article highlights the limitations of existing energy transition instruments, such as Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) and green taxonomies, which tend to prioritize discrete projects over broader economic transformation. For highly indebted countries, this approach constrains the ability to reconcile energy security with decarbonization and does not fully support industrialization ambitions.
As an alternative, the paper advocates for a more comprehensive approach to transition finance, aligned with national development strategies and supported by stronger coordination between public and private actors. National “country platforms” and strategic investment funds emerge as key tools. Initiatives such as Senegal’s sovereign fund for clean energy and the Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) illustrate their potential to mobilize capital, coordinate investment, and reduce reliance on high-risk fossil fuel projects—provided adequate institutional capacity and governance are in place.
Ultimately, the article argues that the opposition between fossil fuel expansion and green transition is a false dichotomy. Building resilience requires addressing immediate vulnerabilities while simultaneously advancing low-carbon energy and industrial systems in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment.
The full version of the policy paper is available below:
